STCWA
SUBMISSION TO SENATE INQUIRY INTO PUBLIC TRANSPORT
The Senate Committee on Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport is undertaking an Inquiry into role of public transport in delivering productivity outcomes:
a) The need for an integrated approach across road and rail in addressing congestion in cities including Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth;
b) The social and environmental benefits of public transport projects compared to road infrastructure projects such as Westconnex and the East-West Link;
c) The national significance of public transport;
d) The relationship between public transport and building well-functioning cities;
e) The decision of the Federal Government to refuse to fund public transport projects;
f) The impact on user charges arising from requiring states to fund public transport projects; and,
g) Any related matter.
The Sustainable Transport Coalition of
Western Australia (STCWA) has made the following as a submission to the Inquiry.
a) Need for integrated
approach across road and rail in addressing congestion
1) There is also a need for integration with land use, especially
employment and parking
2) In Perth there is a significant concentration of employment is in the
CBD and peak travel demand is radial
3) Radial routes, both road and passenger rail, are getting
increasingly congested
4) Perth already has freeways along the edges of the CBD so cannot
reasonably build more road capacity together with parking capacity to overcome
this congestion
5) Efforts to increase employment in areas other than the CBD have had
only limited success
6) So the only
transport solution
to cater for an increasing population is public transport plus better bicycle
facilities, especially on the radial routes, including completing the bike
paths along the railways and into the CBD
7) But it is not just any public transport. It needs to be focused on
where the un-met demand is. For Perth this is in the North East corridor. The
planned MAX light rail is to cater for this, which is really a road/rail
project because the space needed for the light rail has to be taken from
certain roads and this needs to be replaced in some areas. But the present
State Government has put this back to an unknown time, because of funding
restrictions.
8) Un-met demand also exists on the existing public transport routes in
peak periods
9) Additional buses and train carriages are needed in Perth. Some have
been ordered but, again, funding restrictions have meant delays
10) Any integrated approach
requires careful selection between forms of public transport: heavy rail,
medium rail, light rail, bus rapid transit, and conventional buses – see Ref 1.
11) The recent availability
of smart phone technology has enabled real time information about, and ordering
of, mini-buses at less cost than conventional taxis, mainly due to cost sharing
between passengers. This new form of public transport needs to be added to the
public transport mix. It could be especially useful in Perth for transporting
people from home to rail stations where we are currently experiencing an ever
increasing demand for parking at rail stations, with its attendant costs and
inappropriate land use problems.
12) Any integrated approach
across road and rail in addressing congestion needs to map congestion on roads
compared to congestion (crowding) on public transport. Where overcrowding leads to passengers
having to wait for successive buses or trains because the first one is full is
equivalent to car drivers being delayed by road congestion.
b) social and environmental
benefits of public transport compared to road projects
1) In areas of high travel demand, public transport is a more efficient
user of travel space than private cars. Increased use of public transport
reduces traffic congestion - see c) below - and improves operating conditions
for commercial and freight vehicles.
2)
Public transport reduces road traffic
deaths and injuries
3)
It produces less CO2
emissions, as long as buses and trains are reasonably well patronized. A bus
with less than 5 passengers is typically less fuel efficient than a car with
1.2 passengers (a typical car occupancy rate in Perth)
4)
It provides better social
equity for those without driver’s licenses including the young and some elderly
people, and for those who cannot afford a car with its attendant running and
parking costs.
5)
Obesity can be reduced. A study
in USA showed that car drivers who switch to public transport dropped an
average of five pounds. Another showed that 60% of residents iIn a “low-walkable” neighborhood were
overweight, compared to 35% in a “high-walkable” neighborhood (Ref 2, page 41).
The key point is that walkability is
best for health and public transport encourages walking.
6)
There is also a need to
recognize we need good major roads, especially in low density areas that cannot
reasonably support frequent public transport, and for efficient freight
distribution.
7)
The bottom line is that it is
not a question of public transport vs roads. It is a question of balance between good public transport, walking and
cycling facilities in higher density areas vs good major road systems elsewhere.
c) national significance of
public transport
1)
The majority of Australians
live in large urban areas. If you believe that their overall accessibility to
work, health, education and recreation are, collectively, of national
significance, then you have to believe that public transport plays an important
part. This is especially so for people in congested areas, for those without
driver’s licenses including the young and some elderly people, and for those
who cannot afford a car with its attendant running and parking costs. This is
the conventional view.
2)
A more strategic view is that,
in the event of a fuel emergency then public transport, plus walking and
cycling, could be the only ways people will continue productive lives during
the period of such an emergency.
Lessons
from the first and second oil shocks indicate that communities take significant
time to adjust to limited supplies of very expensive oil products.
Even
in the absence of such an emergency, growth in the demand for oil continues to
outstrip supply, leading to price increases and potential scarcity that,
progressively, will increase the cost and vulnerability of transport. Public
transport provides and effective alternative for much personal travel, reducing
the fuel-related pressures on business.
3)
While most Australian cities’
train and tram networks are fuelled by gas and coal, they will still be swamped
given any oil-based fuel emergency. For example, if just 10% of Perth’s
motorists who currently drive to the CBD every morning tried to migrate to public transport,
this will would double the
current demand for the city’s public transport. A recent survey showed that 28%
of Australian motorists would consider other modes of transport once petrol
reached $1.80 per litre and another 20% if it reached $2 per litre (www.budgetdirect.com.au/about-us/media-releases/2014/petrol-prices.html). The price of unleaded petrol in
Perth went over $1.60/litre, for the first time, in the first week of January
2014.
4)
Congestion is an economic and
productivity issue in its own right. The Federal Government’s own Bureau of
Transport and Regional Economics estimated the annual avoidable cost of
congestion in Australian capital cities to be $9.4 billion in 2005, consisting
of:
·
$3.4 billion in private time
costs;
·
$3.6 billion in business time
costs;
·
$1.2 billion in extra vehicle
operating costs; and
·
$1.1 billion in extra air
pollution damage costs (Reference 3, page 11)
The
BTRE expected this cost to more than double to $20.4 billion by 2020.
Assuming
the extra vehicle operating costs are split between private and business travel
in the same proportions as the time costs, Australian business bears 45% of the
cost of congestion in Australian capital cities.
5)
The nature of congestion is
such that additional traffic contributes much more to its cost than traffic
already using the roads, especially at peak periods. The BTRE research
indicates that peak period marginal cost of congestion for Perth in 2010 was
20-30 cents per car-kilometre in Perth: more than the direct operating cost of
the marginal car (less than 20 cents per kilometre).
Marginal congestion costs for Perth (2010 prices)
Source:
Derived from data for Perth in Bureau of
Transport and Regional Economics (Reference 3) and Victorian data in Australian
Transport Council (Reference 4)
Public
transport is at its most effective at times and places of peak travel demand.
Its contribution to reducing the cost of congestion (including the cost to
business) is substantially greater than passenger numbers alone might indicate.
6)
For most Australians living in
urban areas, the price of petrol is an important determinant of their public
transport use. The recent draft Department of Transport’s Public Transport for
Perth in 2031 (www.transport.wa.gov.au/mediaFiles/about-us/ABOUT_P_PT_Plan2031.pdf)
highlights the growth in use of public transport in Perth. It said (p14) that
“Public transport patronage in Perth grew 67% from 1999 to 2009, at a time when
the population grew by 22%.” During that decade, the global oil price for west
Texas Intermediate crude went from approximately USD$20 per barrel to about
$100 per barrel, having peaked at nearly $150 per barrel in July 2008 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7501939.stm).
Perth petrol prices for unleaded petrol doubled from about 80cents per litre to
$1.60 during the same period.
7)
The STCWA has gathered
significant information on the global production of oil, rising prices and the
impact on people migrating from cars to public transport. STC’s policy paper Oil:
Living with Even Less outlines the implications of the peaking of global conventional
crude oil production (www.stcwa.org.au/images/living_with_ev_less_policy.pdf).After
having doubled every decade from the 1930s to the 1980s, global oil production
has grown less than 10% between 1999-2009, and only about 1% in the eight years
since 2005 (see image below).
9)
Most general-cargo and
container ports in Australia are in urban areas, especially the capital cities.
A large proportion of the land-side movement of this freight, both within the
cities and from ports to regional areas, has no alternative to road transport.
Road freight in urban areas is as affected by traffic congestion as passenger
movement is. The cost to business of this congestion is increased by the effect
of stop-start travel on heavy vehicle operating costs and the inventory cost of
goods in transit.
10) Inter-city and trains and buses provide an essential low cost means
for Australian and overseas tourists. Capacity to carry bicycles, and
pedestrian connectivity with city public transport, are important features.
Termini at the Perth Busport, Central and East Perth stations are well designed
in this regard. Another feature is affordability and there is scope for WA’s
bus services to be made more affordable. In particular, maintaining fares set for
direct routes where longer routes sometimes have to be taken.
d)
relation between public transport and well-functioning cities
1)
By well-functioning cities we
understand cities that are highly desirable places to live, work and recreate.
The classic models are the European cities such as Paris, Barcelona and
Amsterdam. The key to such cities is walkability, including human scale
buildings. While walkability benefits from good public transport, good public
transport relies absolutely on walkability (Ref 2, page 140).
2)
Practically all public
transport trips require walk trips at each end. Walkers and cyclists provide
many of the ingredients of a great city; such as vitality, interest, eyes on
the street, increased personal security, health benefits, and customers for shops.
3)
Walkable cities require
comprehensive parking policies that include on-street parking, off-street
parking, payments by developers in-lieu of on-site parking to be used for
collective parking, and residential parking permits. This will also benefit
public transport.
4)
Simply providing more public
transport will not, of itself, lead to a well-functioning city. It is the
design of the neighborhood, so that it supports walking, cycling and public
transport that is the key. This design has to include density (around 5 to 6
stories), building frontages that are human scale and address the street, plus mixed
land use.
5)
In summary, the issue is
not the relation between public transport and well-functioning cities per se. The issue is locality design that supports
walking and cycling, that will also support public transport that leads to well-functioning
cities.
6)
The priority is not Transit
Oriented Development, rather Pedestrian Oriented Development that will
naturally help public transport.
e) Federal Government not
funding public transport
1)
Our submission on Issue c), the
national significance of public transport, illustrates the importance of public
transport. Clearly Federal funding of public transport should be provided, but
with conditions. Those conditions should be that the applicants should show
they have, or will implement, good neighborhood design – as described in our
submission on issue d).
2)
Funding the right kind of
public transport can have big economic advantages. For example, in Portland,
Oregon, they prepared both a streetcar plan and a neighborhood plan that
included affordable housing and the removal of a freeway ramp. The streetcar
opened in 2001 at a cost of about $US55 million. Since then over $US3.5 billion
has sprung up around the trolley line: sixty-four times the initial investment
(Ref 2, page 152)
3)
The Federal and State Government
funding of roads needs to be seen against the background of possible overestimating
of future traffic demand.
A
number of recent Australian and international case studies underscore the
dangers of over-relying on transport models to decide road investment. The case studies in attachment 1
provide evidence of shortcomings of traffic modeling that resulted in
significant overestimation of projected demand for toll roads. This has resulted in a resultant loss
to private sector investors and misallocation of society’s scarce capital. Recent cultural changes impacting on
the travel habits of the younger generation and growing concerns over the cost
and availability of oil-based fuels reinforce these concerns.
f) Impact on road user
charges from requiring states to fund public transport
1)
Road user charges need to
include parking charges to be most effective
2)
Road user charges need to be
seen as a whole of city strategy because this will be a key to effective
congestion management. So road user charges in the form of a tolls to help pay
for individual road projects are short sighted in that they distort the
potential for a whole of city approach.
3)
Location- and time-specific
road user charges should be planned for all major cities by State Governments
(because Federal Government does not have the legal means to cover all the
aspects) as a means of congestion management. Their actual introduction will
necessarily be dependent on timing of political and public opinion, and may be
introduced in stages. For example, Perth has a central area parking charge that
has been used for many years to meet the costs of ‘free’ CAT (Central Area Transit)
buses. This has been successful in reducing central area traffic congestion,
and is now being considered for other parts of the Perth Metropolitan Region.
g) Other
1)
Fuel efficiency and low CO2
emissions are increasingly important requirements of transport. There is
considerable scope to improve this by:
·
Funding improvements to public
transport through increasing fuel taxes (or at least indexing them), levying
accident insurance, and adding a carbon price on all transport fuels to make
the polluters (drivers) pay for the health and congestion costs of car and
truck use.
·
Fitting trains and buses with
energy recovery (regenerative) braking systems
·
Using smaller buses where
appropriate, particularly on ‘feeder services’ to railway stations. For example
4 cylinder 4 tonne buses seating 24 passengers cost half as much in
depreciation, fuel and maintenance as the 9 tonne 48 passenger units currently
used. See also point a) 11) – minibuses using smart phone technology.
Summary
a)
The STCWA submits that, not
only is there a need for integrated
approach across road and rail in addressing congestion, there is also a
need for integration with land use, especially employment and parking.
b)
The main question is not the social and environmental benefits of
public transport compared to road projects, rather is a question of balance
between good public transport, walking and cycling facilities in higher density
areas vs good major road systems elsewhere.
c)
The majority of Australians
live in large urban areas. If you believe that their overall accessibility to
work, health, education and recreation are, collectively, of national
significance, then you have to accept the national
significance of public transport.
d)
While there is a relation between public transport and well-functioning
cities, the key is locality design that supports walking and cycling, that
will also support public transport that leads to well-functioning cities.
e)
The Federal Government not funding public transport is a problem.
Federal funding of public transport should be provided, but with conditions.
Those conditions should be that the applicants show they have, or will
implement, good neighborhood design.
f)
The impact on road user charges from requiring states to fund public
transport is not clear. Location and time specific road user charges should
be planned for all major cities by State Governments (because Federal
Government does not have the legal means to cover all the aspects) as a means
of congestion management. The Federal Government might develop guidelines to
support this, possibly tied to the conditions mentioned in e) above.
g)
Other: fuel efficiency and reduced CO2
emissions should be a key aim of the Federal Government.
References
2.
Jeff Speck; Walkable City: how downtown can save
America, one step at a time; Farrar, Straus and Giroux; 2012
We are happy to
provide more information on any of these points if you wish.
David Rice
Convener STCWA
18 January 2014
Attachment: Case
studies in traffic estimating errors
A 2011 report
prepared by the Commonwealth Department
of Infrastructure and Transport cites the work undertaken by Bain et al
(2005) for Standard and Poor’s credit rating agency. The work analyzed the
results of modeling on 104 toll roads, bridges and tunnels. On average, traffic
was 23% below estimates for the first year of operation, with negligible
improvement in predictive performance following the first year of
operation. The report also cites
the work of Flyvberg et al (2005 and 2006) based on analysis of 183 road
projects around the world. This research concluded that for half the projects
assessed the estimating error was at least +/- 20% and for quarter of projects
the errors were at least +/- 40%.
In Australia the
estimating errors have been more pronounced. The 2011 Commonwealth report cites
the work of Li and Hensher (2010).
The authors found that, of the 14 Australian toll roads included in
their study, on average actual traffic volumes were found to be 45% below
estimates. Although estimating errors declined over time, in some cases there
was still a 19% forecasting error after six years.
Why the forecasts erred
The Department of
Transport’s reports notes that estimates can be inaccurate for a number of
reasons including the following:
1.
Inadequate model structure;
2.
Data limitations;
3.
Uncertainties in input
assumptions;
4.
Ramp up risks;
5.
Optimism bias/strategic
misrepresentation
Other trends that can amplify these problems
Generational
cultural trends have recently been cited to the effect that younger people are
less inclined to purchase a vehicle than previous generations. In the U.S there has been a 7.7%
decline in the share of miles driven by people aged between twenty and thirty
according to research prepared by the US Federal Highway Administration (see
graph below). According to Davies (2010) there are probably a number of facts at
work to account for this phenomena including declining discretionary income,
the greater difficulty of obtaining a license, higher car insurance premiums
for the young, preference for inner city living and a tendency to defer to
family formation. More importantly, Davies contends that early habits are
likely to be engrained in this generation as they age. This has obvious
implications for road space demand.
Rising fuel costs are also likely to cancel
out the effect of improved vehicle mileage. A number of credible projections
suggest steeper fuel price hikes due to the peaking of lower cost conventional
crude oil supplies.
These types of trends are likely to
increase the risk of over-estimates of traffic culminating in over allocation
of capital to road infrastructure at the expense of more timely and efficient
alternatives.
References
Bain, R. and Polakovic, L. 2005, Traffic
Forecasting Risk Study Update 2005: Through Ramp-Up and Beyond, Standard &
Poor’s, London.
Department of Infrastructure and Transport
(2011) “Review of Traffic Forecasting Performance Toll Roads”. Article
downloaded from Internet on 8th January 2014 at:
Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. K. S. and Buhl, S.
L. 2005, How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects,
Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 71, No. 2, Spring.
Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M. K. S. and Buhl, S.
L. 2006, Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts, Transport Review, Vol. 26, No. 1,
January.
Li, Z. and D. A. Hensher 2010, Toll Roads
in Australia: An Overview of Characteristics and Accuracy of Demand Forecasts,
Transport Reviews, 30: 5.
